Entrepreneurial Quicksand


If you’ve been reading ForeverJobless for a while, you’ll know that I used to be a professional poker player. I started playing in college, got pretty good over the next few years, and then became a full time pro, which I did for 3-4 years before switching my focus to business.

I got better as a player from reading all sorts of poker books, poker forums and talking strategy with other players, and coaches.

I started my poker journey with just $50, and did whatever I could to learn the game as I went. If I played against a player who seemed good, I’d message them and start asking questions.

Slowly I got better and better. I still remember how exciting it was as I started to grow my initial $50 deposit. I was excited about the money, but probably moreso just learning and beating the game.

It was fun to learn to outthink people, and profit for doing so. That skill translated well over to business. Not just from a competitive standpoint of outthinking competitors, and having them call you “lucky” just like they did at the poker tables, but in the sense of evaluating opportunities and thought processes. Is this +EV? Is there a more optimal opportunity to consider? Why isn’t anyone else considering that? Hmm… why is everyone doing this type of business when it’s -EV? Don’t people know this is a bad idea?

I have a very analytical mind. It probably helped me quite a bit in poker.

Not only did I learn from those who knew the game when I started, but I also ask “why” a lot. If something doesn’t make complete sense to me, I want to know why it is. “Wait, why would you bet here, but not there?” … “Why is folding correct, why not re-raise if he’ll fold X % of the time?”.

I questioned a lot of “correct” advice, and learned that while it may have been profitable at the time, it was not actually optimal. I’m glad I questioned some of it, because once I started implementing some things into my game I started making more money, even though the books I was reading wouldn’t have told me to do that. My style became more optimal than the books I’d read to initially learn the game.

I can’t take credit for coming up with all the ideas on my own. Many weren’t mine. Some were strategies that were working for friends I talked poker with. If the strategy made logical sense to me, I tested implementing it into my game. Some were from poker forums, or coaches I’d hired.

But a lot of my playing style was very different than the books I read that were written by the experts. As a matter of fact, it became almost the opposite.

“If everyone is playing the popular way, why not just play a style that would beat that style?”.

Over time my winnings skyrocketed. Players thought I was crazy because I played a very, very aggressive style. They assumed I was just some wild player.

While many of my opponents were playing “correct” according to books, and in a way where they could have been a profitable player, I played a style that would obliterate a “correct” style of play, so all they could do is sit back and wait for a big hand as I kept collecting their chips, or try to play back at me out of frustration, but that would only make them hand me their money faster since no one had taught them how to play against that style. As you’ve learned from the ForeverJobless blog, emotional decisions are obviously -EV. They’d call me lucky, and plenty of other names. The emotional thought process didn’t lead them to think about WHY they were losing.

Internally they probably thought, “I’m doing exactly what the books said, this crazy guy is bound to lose his money at some point!”. So they’d put more money on the table, and a usual result was them losing more of it. Why? Well, they weren’t really thinking about why they were playing the way that they were. Again, their mindset was emotional. A logical mindset is the one that could have helped them. An emotional one just led them further astray.

They didn’t stop to ask if the strategy they were using was actually optimal, they just did it because that’s what they had been told to do.

Often the ‘good’ players who’d read all the books were actually easier to beat than the amateurs. You could tell exactly what they were going to do.

It’s often just assumed that if someone is an “expert” on a subject, you listen to them. We grow up listening to our parents, teachers, bosses, idols… people rarely question why they say what they say though.

I was probably an annoying kid for my parents or teachers. I asked “why” a lot.

“We need to go to the store.”

“Why?”

“Because we need to pick up some bread”

“Why?

“So we can eat.”

“Why can’t we eat something else that’s in the house?”

“Let’s just have a quiet ride to the store okay honey?”

“Why?”

As I grew up, I’d occasionally get in trouble in school for challenging what a teacher said and asking too many questions. “That’s just the way it is” or “because I said so” are not a very logical answers, and I let them know. In a strict private school, let’s just say that’s frowned upon 🙂

Should I have been in detention for asking questions? Maybe they should have been in detention for not having answers.

How are you supposed to trust someone’s advice when they can’t even explain why they’re telling you to do what they’re telling you to do?

If someone is illogical, whether it’s the way everyone else is doing it or not, doesn’t make it right just because everyone else is doing it wrong.

If something doesn’t make sense and when questioned on it, someone can’t give a logical response as to why they are doing something, authority figure or not they probably don’t actually understand why. So, instead of just doing the same thing “because we’re supposed to”, the better use of time would be figuring out if it’s actually an optimal thing to be doing.

Let’s look at how this applies in the business world.

Everyone starting out wants to make money. It’s exciting. I get it.

yamoney

A better initial question than “can I make money at this?” is, “is this the optimal thing for me to be doing?”.

See, much like poker was when I got started, most people just blindly followed whatever advice was out there, and maybe they got some temporary results, but over the long haul they wondered why it didn’t work.

“I don’t understand, the gurus said to do this, it’s not working for me!”

I see this with most entrepreneurs. The average question equates to them just wanting to be told what to do. It’s like they’re waving a flag that says, “I plan on failing!”

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They don’t plan on thinking for themselves, they just want someone to tell them what to do.

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You must learn to think for yourself if you want to be successful in this game, or any other. I cannot stress this enough. Blindly following the advice of someone you view as having the answers is. So. Ridiculously. Bad.

You must understand why.

Why are you working on the business you’re working on? What made you choose that route? Did you choose it blindly because a guru told you it was a good way to make money? What was their incentive to do so? Were they incentivised to show you the optimal route, or were they potentially incentivised another way?

Classic example in the ‘info’ space online. “Start blogs, sell books!”

The huge majority of people telling you to do those things are monetarily incentivised to do so.

Are they the optimal ‘business’ or money making ventures? Hell no. People should definitely not be starting a blog or writing a book the majority of the time. It is unequivocally a suboptimal decision for 99%+ of people.

However, it is an ‘easy’ business with no barriers, so people are confused into thinking it’s good for them. Easy and optimal are very, very different things.

blogbooksoptimal

A guru says, “start a blog”, “write a book”, and you trust that it’s what you should be doing because they say so.

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Many people never stop to ask “why”, but if you did, they would likely say, “to build a platform”, “because then you can become an authority”, “then you can sell things to people”, “to get a name for yourself”. Now, while these all sound like reasonable answers to a question like that, they are not logical reasons to do so. Since most people don’t think logically, they blindly accept guru answers and go about their way.

 

platform

Well, you’ve got to go a lot deeper than that 🙂

Have you broken down the EV(expected value) of having a platform for what you intend to do if your goal is to make money from it? Why didn’t you do so? Because the guru selling you the course or having you click on their link didn’t tell you to? Of course they didn’t, that would be a barrier to them making money.

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They either don’t understand that it’s important, or don’t have goals aligned with teaching that to you. Is putting up a barrier to get money from you good for their profits? No, that would be a foolish thing to do if their goal is to maximize their profits.

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Have you insured that your offering will check off the two steps to building a profitable business? If not, why are you doing it? Because a guru told you to follow your dreams and that “you too can be like them.’?

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If they became a guru in the first place it’s likely that at some point in time they passed the two steps. That is what allowed them to be successful.

Why wouldn’t they make sure you did the same?

Again, it’s not good for their bottom line, and/or they don’t actually understand that you need to do it.

If you aren’t thinking for yourself, you’re going to continue to get hustled left and right. It’s not always the gurus faults, some of them actually think the medicine they’re selling you will help.

The side effect of the potion may be a road that’s filled with capped income and struggles, because you didn’t fully understand why you were doing something. If you play follow the leader sometimes you’re lucky just to pick up the leader’s scraps. Good for the guru, bad for you.pillsPeople are confused into thinking that the success of one person doing something a certain way can be replicated the same exact way and expect the same success. That’s flawed logic for a number of reasons.

If everyone is being told to do the same exact things, it is unlikely to be optimal for very long.

In other words, if something is optimal, and then everyone starts doing the optimal thing, it is not likely to be the optimal thing anymore. 🙂

Much like poker, once everyone is playing the game the same exact way the books say to play, even if at one point that was a very profitable way to do so, after a while the only one profiting from that advice is the author. The gurus have the choice to become the student again, and learn why their optimal strategy is no longer optimal, or do everything they can to maximize profits before people learn it’s not very good advice anymore.

In poker many of the old time gurus would talk down about the internet phenoms and claim they hadn’t been around the game long enough to be good. “We’ve been in the game for decades”, they’d say, and try to make it seem like the new ideas and new strategies coming from higher level thinkers were incorrect, as if time was the reason. About as illogical as you could get, and why they were starting to get crushed in their own games. If they’d really thought about it, they’d realize the 20 years worth of hands they’d seen could be done in 1 year online from a college kid, and not only that could be reviewed in depth after.

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Many of the old timers got crushed, and often resorted to becoming coaches, or teaching seminars instead of playing because they couldn’t make money in the games anymore.

Some of the ones who evolved and realized there was a more optimal way to play remained in the games because they adapted to the improved play.

Take an honest look at your current path. Why are you on it? Is it because you’re playing follow the leader? If so, you better be 100% sure you’re following the right one. It’s a very unlikely probability that you are.

Have you asked why you’re doing what you’re doing? Is it because someone told you it was a good idea? When given reasons for why it was a good idea, did you think deeply, and logically about those reasons? As mentioned earlier it’s easy to come up with practical reasons why to do something, it’s significantly different for those practical reasons to make logical sense for you to be doing. Often practical reasons are distractions that take you off a more optimal path.

Stop doing things because it’s what people say to be doing, and start doing them because they’re why you should be doing them.

Think on this: the most optimal path to be on, is not what everyone is already telling everyone to do. When it’s at that point, it’s likely become a suboptimal path, or has been for a long time.

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53 Responses to “Entrepreneurial Quicksand”


  1. Ian

    Great post, as always.

    This has been something I have thought about recently myself – it has only taken me 3 years to get there haha. It is such a shift in perspective.

    Thanks for posting things like this.

    Reply
  2. Ralph

    Thanks,

    Good Post.

    Everyone likes a good rule of thumb. However, the great know the exceptions to the rule of thumb.

    Reply
  3. Remco

    Very good read. I also experienced people being very defensive if I ask them why too many times. We are just hardwired to follow others as sheep.
    And to rewire our brains, is just so much of a challenge.

    I keep thinking of the different types of knowledge that exists. Things we know we know….things we know we don’t know…and the BIG ONE…things we don’t know we don’t know

    Reply
    • Billy

      People only get defensive because they so desperately want it to work. People so desperately want it to work because things haven’t been working for them for such a long time. Things haven’t been working for such a long time because they’ve been following the wrong advice.

      Reply
  4. Chris

    So if you have 10 business ideas, how do you decide which one is optimal?

    Reply
  5. Sam

    Very true Billy. Great post about not following blindly.

    Sam

    Reply
  6. Jerry

    You always have great thorough examples in you posts. Well done again with the spot on poker analogies. Keep the good stuff coming!

    Another pretty good example of bucking the guru trend was Sabermetrics and Moneyball in MLB. The Oakland A’s of the 1990s used a new way to evaluate undervalued players and helped change the way teams acquired free agents. Every other team was fighting for the big free agent signing and spending a shit ton of money when they thought having to spend money was the only way to win. Billy Beane and Co basically asked ‘why does it have to be this exact way?’ and rewrote the optimal way all professional sports look at aquiring players today.

    you really do an excellent job of making me think with your in depth posts. They are super helpful. Thanks.

    Reply
    • Billy

      Wish I’d thought to include that one in the post! That’s such a perfect example.

      Maybe I’ll do a follow up and include some examples like that. The Golden State Warriors is another current sports example. You weren’t “supposed” to play the way they are, but it’s significantly more optimal than the way you’re “supposed” to play.

      Reply
  7. naved

    This is a big challenge for me. How do I wake myself up out of a trance so that I know not to make assumptions. I find this easier said than done. One item that I believe helps is a thinking checklist. Questions I ask myself.
    – what am I assuming. What are the implications of this believe or action?
    – what do the words really mean?
    – Talk to someone else (even if the question seems obvious). Confirm from multiple sources.
    – Invert. If this was false, what would need to be true?

    Reply
    • Billy

      Asking yourself and others questions is great.

      Just make sure the people you’re asking have been where you’re trying to go. Bad feedback is worse than no feedback.

      Reply
  8. Vas

    Great post Billy yet again. How would a beginner in the entrepreneurial space gain enough self awareness to know their “why”. It seems like some people know what they should be doing from a very young age, while others just drift through life.

    Reply
    • Billy

      Most people don’t know what they should be doing from a young age. Many people think they know and then when they are in their 20s, 30s, 40s or whatever age they realize they shouldn’t be working on the thing they thought they should.

      I think this read may help you: https://foreverjobless.com/how-to-set-goals/

      Reply
    • Marius

      My main mentor currently is Dr John Demartini, he made a value determination process with 13 questions for free. You can google it up and fill it out, should help you to get at least a basic overview of where your values are and what you could pursue. Hope it helps.

      Reply
  9. Mike

    Great post! I’ve often struggled with blindly following advice and then wondering why it didn’t work. This is a good reminder to constantly ask why and try to gain a deeper understanding of your subject.

    Often times the popular strategy or advice won’t make since for your particular circumstances, but it’s hard to know ahead of time if you don’t question the advice.

    Reply
    • Billy

      Whenever something is the way it’s ‘supposed to be’, try to think of a more optimal solution- this will create many “aha!” moments once you train yourself to think this way.

      Reply
      • Nora

        Hi Billy, could you write more about this? I’m trying to learn how to do this. (Also, I want to thank you for all of the amazing content you already put out)


      • Billy

        Thanks Nora!

        What specifically would be your questions?


      • Nora

        It just sounds like a better way of thinking that I’m not familiar with, so I don’t really know what questions to ask. Maybe:
        1. How do you know when to stop asking why and start moving forward?
        2. What are some examples of thinking of a more optimal solution?
        3. Isn’t it beneficial to use the hard-earned knowledge of others?
        4. How do you ‘train’ yourself to think this way?


  10. Kelly

    Hey Billy, I’ve been debating on whether to go into affiliate marketing or start up an e-commerce store. Based on your experience, what would you recommend?

    Reply
    • Billy

      Kelly, I’d highly recommend taking a day and reading through all of my articles, and listening to all my podcasts.

      Reply
  11. Kelly

    And also, I’m just wondering about something: How are we supposed to know what is “optimal” even if we are asking questions? There are so many people who are succeeding with a variety of things. Affiliate marketing, seo, blogs, paid advertising, CPA, Facebook advertising, e-commerce, Amazon FBA. How do we pick and avenue and succeed at it if we are beginners with no experience? We need some direction, wouldn’t you agree?

    Reply
    • Billy

      There’s people ‘real succeeding’, ‘fake succeeding’, temporarily succeeding. Understanding “why” they are or aren’t is more important than who’s posting about their current success and then doing whatever they’re doing.

      What can you offer in a product or service that is not currently being offered?

      If nothing, your goal is to solve THAT problem. Everything else you mentioned is completely irrelevant until you can do that.

      Reply
  12. Matthew Chapdelaine

    A real eye-opener. I’ve seriously spent SO much money following gurus in one form or another. I just escaped the clutches of a would-be guru.

    Thinking for myself is something I really only do every once in a while. It’s like a magic mineral that only pops out of the ground when digging with the shovel of inspiration. I don’t feel like I own the shovel. I just appears now and then.

    Reply
    • Billy

      Make your new favorite word “why?”, and evaluate potential answers to that question over and over, no matter the subject. Your thought process will improve, and you’ll reap the rewards for it.

      Reply
  13. Arthur

    Hey Billy,

    That’s why I still have that 100% open rate. Love your content!

    And that’s also why I hate bloggers and guru who are “meta”; I feel like 99% of people online make money telling other people how to make money online. There’s only a handful of people that teach other people how to make online that I’d actually trust… Noah Kagan and Pat Flynn come to mind.

    I’d love to hear more specific criticism about why building a blog and writing an ebook is not optimal; I’m not sure if I’m among the ones who are just “following the leader.”

    From what I could understand, you’re referring to the people that just “wantz to make teh dollar$$$$”, go online and type “how to make money online”, start a blog about whatever copying other people’s content and trying to sell it.

    On “How to Create a Business that Prints Money”, you say that the first step to a successful business is to create something of value in a market better than what’s out there. So does the medium matter?

    What if I could actually provide real good information and use a website as a medium? I’m somewhat involved in an startup environment and while there are some very good ideas there, most of the time these entrepreneurs become hostages of investors and I’m going after freedom, so that’s not a model for me.

    Reply
    • Billy

      The medium will matter. Blogs/books are just a platform to deliver content, but most of the content people are delivering is garbage, and they wonder why it doesn’t work. They never solved Step 1.

      When people don’t know what they should do, they look for ‘easy’ routes, books and blogs being a great example, and people making money from selling those easy routes to people are glad to separate them from their money. However, since they are unable to solve Step 1, they’ll likely be in for a long, hard road.

      If someone had already solved Step 1, around information/education, there’s nothing wrong with writing a book, or having a blog.

      Most people are missing step 1, and wondering why step 2 doesn’t work. It doesn’t work because they have nothing to market. It shouldn’t exist, which is the case for 99%+ of blogs/books.

      Reply
      • Ryan

        Step 1 is kinda vague for me, what’s better than out there means anyway?

        For example, this blog post is good, but how do you actually determine, yea this is better than whats out there or even different or having value to X person (who?)

        Solving step 1 is kinda like “as far as i know” this is good. Matter of interpretation kind of way.

        Maybe the courses out there are long, so i simplify them and deliver them in a matter unique to me, but all the information exists everywhere else.

        Does this qualify as solving step 1? I think it does.


  14. Pook

    Excellent post! I came across the following piece from Schopenhauer which relates to this post:

    “The man who thinks for himself, forms his own opinions and learns the authorities for them only later on, when they serve but to strengthen his belief in them and in himself. But the book-philosopher starts from the authorities. He reads other people’s books, collects their opinions, and so forms a whole for himself, which resembles an automaton made up of anything but flesh and blood.

    Reading is nothing more than a substitute for thought of one’s own. It means putting the mind into leading-strings. The multitude of books serves only to show how many false paths there are, and how widely astray a man may wander if he follows any of them. But he who is guided by his genius, he who thinks for himself, who thinks spontaneously and exactly, possesses the only compass by which he can steer aright.”

    Reply
  15. Hermann

    Hang on. You’re saying that we should do what we think and not just do what you say. But if we do that aren’t we just doing what you say? So does that mean we shouldn’t do what you say? 😛 Just tell me what to do already :).

    sorry, couldn’t resist. GREAT post.

    I think that WHY you do something is the most important thing and if it’s to service your own ego, make a ton of money or feel important it’s going to be tough going. If it’s to help others, express your creativity/ideas or learn and grow those tend to be better long term motivators. At least for me. If I wanted to make as much money as possible I’d probably just work as hard as I could at being an investment banker.

    Reply
  16. Prince Kani

    Great Article!!!!!

    Thanks Bill for the insight, and once again for hitting the hammer on the nail.

    I found myself on this path, and still do sometimes. I am starting to realize who is really a good leader to take advice from based on the everyday example they display.

    It so much you can get looking at established “entrepreneurs” who quotes who has made it and wants to show you there way. They just want you to put your debit card information down below so you can get started on an exciting course. Teaching the same tactics to the other signers as well. It’s a waste if time, energy, and funds. However a great lesson in disguise, depending on if the perception could be turned to the right dial.

    Thanks again Bill!

    Reply
  17. Jennifer P.

    I am so guilty of this and want to think differently.

    Reply
  18. Timothy Durgin

    Billy, great post.

    It’s really easy to fall into this way of thinking (letting the experts and gurus tell you what to do, as opposed to thinking for yourself) when you’re just getting started on your path to success. We’ve all done it at some point in time.

    And notice how I said “your” path to success, not “the” path to success. That’s because — as you’ve pointed out — everyone’s path is different, as much as it hurts many gurus’ bank accounts to admit it.

    There is no such thing as a “business in a box” or “100% turn-key business” that you can just plug in and print money with, except for maybe very well known franchises such as McDonald’s, who also take territory management very seriously (unlike network marketing companies that will just flood the market with 150,000 sales reps).

    If success was as easy as just “following the system” and making cash rain from the sky, everyone would be doing it. Clearly, though, not everyone is swimming in money. In fact, the statistics are such that the highly successful people probably succeed despite the “turn-key system,” not because of it.

    As soon as people can get through this I-must-follow-everything-the-leader-says-period-no-questions-asked phase and start thinking critically about the business opportunities available to them, only then will actual progress start being made towards success.

    Ultimately, you have to be able to differentiate yourself in the marketplace in order to be successful. That’s not groundbreaking news — it’s business 101. But you can only do that if you understand basic economics, which requires some level of independent thinking. A cookie cutter system will never help you differentiate; by definition, it’s a template. And like you said, a template used by thousands or millions of people is practically worthless if the purpose of that template is to serve as your competitive strategy. That alone should say enough.

    Reply
  19. Billy

    Love it!

    Ya, there’s nothing wrong with looking at the strategies of someone who’s doing something successfully, or taking advice from them if the advice makes sense. As long as the person thinks about why it specifically makes sense for them to do.

    If people thought about it more carefully, they’d realize that most of the ‘thought leaders’ are actually ‘thought followers’ who’ve just done a better job at building their platform/marketing tactics than others.

    Reply
  20. Andrei

    Another grate and timely post Billy. You are talking directly to me again.
    I have just gone through this entire process over the past 4-5 Months. I wanted, and still want to quit my 9to5 job, got myself a course from one of the gurus, started going through it and slowly came to the realization that it’s not really all that cracked up to be and not really a good fit. From the initial hype of “I’m building an Info product that I can sell”, I ended up discovering that selling rehashed info under a different name doesn’t seem right with me and started going my own other direction. I slowly discovered another possibility and started building in that direction.
    Just yesterday I came to the realization than something that I thought was very basic and was doing for years on the side is something that there are a lot of people who would like to know how to do. Basically yesterday I just received a proof of concept that I may be going in the right direction with this on. I managed to bang out a 2200 word post draft without even thinking about it. I’ll probably finish the post today or tomorrow.
    I honestly don’t know if what I’m building at the moment will be profitable but it sure as hell will help some people and looks right.
    Thank you again for the grate peaces of knowledge you write.

    Reply
  21. Ian

    Having read this article, its probably the best I have come across for some time. Fully agree that there are books, blogs, white papers, videos, post.it notes…. all telling people what to do. How to grow, how to get more customers, how to go into business and they follow all the same strategies. Its time to ask why not what – we are the ‘WHY’ generation !!

    Reply
  22. Brad Dias

    Billy,

    Another fantastic and thought provoking post. Nobody says it like you. Really…nobody.

    It’s always so, do this….then do that…and follow this to the letter. But that shit never happens in the real world. In fact when it does, the market gets saturated fast.

    After reading this, I came to realise the amount of opportunities I’m passing by. Just because someone else told me to do something else. Or cos I never seen anyone else doing it. So that led me to believe it can’t be done.

    As you said, it’s as simple as answering 2 questions. But those are 2 questions you HAVE to discover and think for yourself. Nobody just posts them out there. The real players are busy executing.

    TLDR : “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.” – Henry Ford

    Reply
    • Billy

      Thank you Brad, really appreciate you man!

      Love that quote! Wish I’d thought to include it.

      Reply
  23. Will Bauer

    Great post although I disagree with it.

    I think if you have a great guru it’s best for 99% of people to follow their advice. (Mine was Eben Pagan back in the days.) Problem was not his teaching was not sound the problem was, I was switching from project to project and following to many other gurus as well. (-> no focus)

    I think the best way if you are just starting out is to follow directions of people how are already where you want to go 100% and do not question the advice. I would still recommend that to anyone how wants to learn poker for example. That’s what people like Tony Robbins recommend as well)

    Only ONCE you got a really good understanding of the topic it’s okay to add your own thoughts / variations. This will save most people a lot of time and frustration.

    But truth is whether it’s poker or business being good and successful required a lot of effort and persistence. But that’s not what people want to hear. They want a magic pill (and there are a lot of people smart enough to sell it).

    That’s the reason why books like the “4 hour workweek” are so successful. It sounds so easy and that’s what people want (to buy).

    So it depends at with stage you are. First you need to learn the rules (best from a master or guru). Once you got that and understand how your industry /business /niche ticks you can develop your own solution. That’s how 99% of successful business are started.

    Sure they are the Mark Zuckerbergs and Silicon Valley disruptors of the world. They have a different attitude think different. It’s interesting to learn from them as well but I think they are an exception. Not everyone is as talented as Steve Jobs.

    In the end it comes down to your goals in life. I think the blog/ebook model would still work for many people even in crowded niches like health or dating. But it will take time and effort. A lot of it and it’s definitely not easy.

    It all comes down to taking consistent action towards your goals. That’s what will make you successful. If you can then add your own thinking you will be extremely successful. 🙂

    Reply
  24. Marius

    Great post again Billy. I think there is even a psychological effect behind people following these Gurus and that’s fear of the unknown. Most people want to have some blueprint, so they can follow it and have not to fear or think for their own.

    This sheep mentally grew a lot since the introduction of the public school system and grows more and more, it’s basically a form of modern slavery, to produce sheeps that work for the big guys. That’s even easy to see, if you look at the statistics. I think we never had 62 people, that have the same amount of money as half of the poorest population on this planet.

    Even as I have this knowledge, it’s still hard to fall into the trap of following these Gurus and only recently stepped out of the realm and finally took things in my own hand.

    Funny that you used the Poker analogy, as I got last week a bit back into the poker scene, after I started reading your recent articles, because I know your background and watched the 2015 WSOP final. I even heard today Daniel Negreanu say, that Poker is quite easy, but people make it way too complicated ( mostly because they want to sell you shit ). I think if you follow a lot of the material and gurus that are currently out there, you even make it more complicated as it is.

    Thanks again for the great remainder, still a lot of work to rewire my brain.

    Reply
  25. Ty

    Hey Billy. Just read your post on EV: Millionaire’s Math and I had a question – I wanted to build up some capital then possibly move into becoming a product creator. I know you know your shit so I wanted to ask:

    What do you think would be the best way for a newbie to get started?

    I was also considering affiliate marketing using paid advertising to drive traffic towards my offers, but I was wondering if you’ve ever done that or think it’s a good idea for a beginner to dabble in until they build up some capital and experience, then move forward? Or is there a more ‘optimal avenue’ I could use to learn how to be successful in the online space before doing my own product.

    The reason why I say this is because I don’t want to put some b.s. out there without having any knowledge or experience that will really help someone.

    Regards

    Ty

    Reply
  26. Victor Silva

    Billy*, did I just read a preview of your coming book? I must say before I read it, and with great help from your non poker related works, I have questioned a lot my lazy TAG style (it took me forever to win a big pot even though it didn’t take as long to hit a big hand) and have become a much better player by becoming one of the most agressive players at my games. Simple logic behind it – if I just stay even by looking (not going, just looking) crazy, then big hands will translate much more into big money. At the end, staying even, although it was the initial logic, was quite an understatement, as so many players were in the lazy “wait for a big hand” mindset. I’ll pay more attention so I ask why more often.

    * Funny, at the exact same time I wrote your name, my headphones came up with the line “Come home Billy bird, international business traveler” (great song by The Divine Comedy, I recommend it).

    Reply
  27. Frank Grant

    Great post i enjoyed this post along with all your other post, thanks for the great information

    Reply
  28. Monaica Ledell

    Love your posts Billy. Was catching up and can appreciate the “guru syndrome” or that this product or strategy will get you to point X. I love this game of logic we’re learning. Thank you!

    Reply

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